Projecting aridity from statistically downscaled and bias-corrected variables for the Gediz Basin, Turkey

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Due to climatological changes, a study was conducted in the Gediz Basin, Turkey, where agricultural production holds an important place. In prepared, 12 general circulation models (GCMs) were utilized under representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios of fifth assessment report (AR5) IPCC for period 2015–2050. The statistical downscaling methods employed projections derived right after applying weighted-averaged ensemble mean by Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method bias correction equidistant quantile mapping (EDQM). temperature-based potential evapotranspiration (PET) formulas modified accordance with Penman–Monteith aridity indexes calculated UNEP's formula. According projections, annual temperature increases between 1.5 2.2 °C total PET 5 8% are foreseen Basin near future. It is that semi-arid climate regime may predominate over region all RCP increasing dryness basin climate. addition, it obtained sub-humid state occurrence regions included be unexpected future scenario. presence conditions more potent trend radiative forcing time.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Water and Climate Change

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2040-2244', '2408-9354']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.109